War

Trump commits the U.S. to war because—well, no one knows. I’m sure it will all be fine.

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America is at war again. That makes eight by my count since Vietnam, and in barely more than a year, Trump has started two. (Your mileage may vary on the war status of our kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro.) Iran is a real war, even if it ends quickly, the U.S. having—technical term here—bombed the shit out of Tehran. WaPo: “U.S. Central Command said Sunday afternoon that it has struck more than 1,000 targets in Iran in two days of operations, including ships, submarines, missile sites, communications links, and the command-and-control centers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”

But while it’s a legit war, no one knows what it’s about. Trump has said it might last a few days . . . or several weeks. The goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability—the same program Trump said he’d obliterated when he bombed Iran last year—or it’s a field-clearing effort for regime change (“to the great, proud people of Iran … take over your government”) or it’s a plan to destroy Iran’s conventional military. Or because we could. Whatever the reason, it’s critically important to safeguard the American people, who are in grave, grave danger from the existential threat of the country that . . . was completely defenseless last year when Israel and the U.S. attacked and decapitated much Iran’s senior leadership. This much we know.

Both Trump and Netanyahu face elections this year, which is entirely coincidental. Bibi is a corrupt dictator who has learned he can forestall indictments by killing Muslims. Trump is a demented aspiring dictator who has no foreign policy views or knowledge and can be cajoled into action by the last person who flattered him on the phone. (Trump is a coward, and one of the tells that Iran is not a threat is his willingness to attack it.) I remain completely mystified why Israel would attack Iran now, a neighbor that has been legitimately dangerous for decades but which has fallen into decadence and decline. Israel had Iran right where they wanted them. By sending bombs into the country, they create the possibility of a change that they can’t control—and sensible countries don’t like uncertainty. But Bibi, as much as Trump, Will flush his country down the toilet to benefit himself.

When the U.S. goes to war, the stakes are usually fairly obvious (though not always to the U.S.). Fueled by ideological goals, Americans have spent a half century invading countries on the premise that they’ll thank us for it, with predictable results. Trump, as ever, approaches things differently. It never really occurred to a President to just wake up one morning and decide to bomb a very weak country, or kidnap their leader, or starve them through blockades. Freed from the responsibility of building public support or thinking about the future or having any plan beyond generating a few positive news cycles, you can really get things done. With the mentality of a greedy teen, the world looks so different. Greenland? It’s sitting there like an empty candy story waiting to be robbed.

Since the revolution now nearly fifty years ago, the U.S. has always vastly inflated Iran’s danger, arguing that they were a chaotic and frankly insane enemy that could do anything. Instead, they have been comparatively weak and almost perfectly predictable. Trump detected that and with his feral bully’s nose, took advantage of the scent of weakness.

In invading, Trump scrambles the usual order of things. After 37 years under the same Supreme Leader who has bedeviled US Mideast politics, Trump just killed him. Presto! For those in the west who prize human liberation and liberal democracy, Khamenei was among the worst rulers in the world. Iran recently killed thousands of its own citizens tired of the retrograde, corrupt rule. His death was cheered by precisely the Iranians we admire—those willing to stand up for a wider view of human flourishing. Europe, Democrats, regular folk—we end up stammering at the spectacle.

And it may actually be a good thing, if you overlook its illegality, impulsiveness, and lack of strategy. There are a dozen ways killing Khamenei could go wrong, but for a country desperate for change, it might create the space for something new. Is it plausible that Israel and the U.S. bomb Iran for a few weeks, declare victory and walk away and as a result Iranians forge a new, better government? I wouldn’t call it likely, but plausible? Maybe?

Will it be good for Trump? Again, good news: almost certainly not. It will be a spendy adventure that is likely to raise gas prices for at least some of the weeks to come, and maybe longer. This will wound Trump politically, and sent his effort to turn us back into a fossil-fuel economy. The invasion confirms rather than undermines Americans’ sense that Trump is an undisciplined and dangerous mess. The rally-around-the-flag effect only works when Americans feel genuine danger, and even then it’s only temporary. Trump spent zero days making the argument that Iran threatens the U.S. and his war begins with no support. It will at best be just another insane thing that happened, like when Trump tore down half the White House.

This is Trumpism exported: a stupid act committed incompetently, without consideration or planning to narrowly benefit one man. It scrambles things because no one has ever coupled the power of a United States with such clownish, impulsive chaos. If there’s a chance it may go right for Iranians, there’s also a chance it could go very wrong for the region.

The Washington Post again: “The vast number of retaliatory attacks — and the array of sites being targeted, including nonmilitary sites in Arab nations across the Middle East — is concerning after so much of the regime’s top leadership was killed… Officials are worried about the command and control of those weapons.”

“Inside the Pentagon, and among some members of the Trump administration, there was deepening concern Sunday that the Iran conflict could spiral out of control.”

The U.S. is at war again. Trump has escalated his insane rule to foreign shores. I want to get off this ride.